Innovation Predictions for 2020
Innovation Predictions for 2020
This week, we’re making some bold predictions about what we’ll see next year.
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2020: A bold new year
Remember those famous “You Will” ads from the 90s that predicted the future? Like this one (that’s surprisingly prescient):
As the holiday season is upon us, we find ourselves reflecting on the past year and giving thanks to all those who’ve helped shape and grow our organization and community. It’s been quite a year for us!
Through this newsletter, we’ve explored a wide range of topics including personalization & privacy, 5G & edge computing, deepfakes & misinformation, ad well as policy, regulation & ways to grow and develop innovation ecosystems.
This week, we’re first reflecting on some of the the 2019 trends we wrote about:
- The emergence of connected cities
- Fashion’s green revolution
- Banking-as-a-Service
- Femtech
- Data’s integration in sports
- Blurring the line between tech and beauty
For more curated complications, check out our recent list of this year’s top 10 issues here.
We’re also making our own predictions! We anticipate new products, services and tools that leverage hyperlocalization, transform supply chains and logistics, and optimize workflows and change how we work. Here are two ideas:
- You’ll be able to access Siri without a signal.
- Remote parts of the U.S. will start receiving Amazon packages by drone.
Read on to find out the rest, and we’ll check in next December to see how we did. For even more 2020 predictions, there are a few of the most interesting prediction round-ups we’ve seen so far:
This is the last Innovation Monitor of the year and we’re excited to continue exploring what’s innovative, exciting and inspiring in 2020!
We hope you’ve been enjoying this newsletter and would love any feedback (erica@nycmedialab.org). Wishing you a happy holiday season, and thank you again for reading!
Best,
Erica Matsumoto
NYC Media Lab
You’ll be able to access Siri without a signal
Trends: Differential Privacy + Edge Computing = More AI on your phone
In 2020, privacy-preserving machine learning will allow Apple to simultaneously improve Siri and keep your data on your phone. Thanks to this, you’ll be able to use Siri without a signal and feel a little more comfortable using Siri without worrying that someone at Apple is listening in on everything you’re dictating to it.
Pressure on big tech companies will result in a spinoff
Trends: Regulation, spurring an innovation environment
A combination of increasing public skepticism about big tech monopolies and major political candidates (most notably Elizabeth Warren) promising to break them up will lead to one or more of the major Silicon Valley tech companies spinning off one or more of its subdivisions in 2020. This might mean Instagram spinning out of Facebook, AWS from Amazon, or YouTube from Google. There is a burgeoning school of thought that argues antitrust action could provide a significant catalyst for the overall innovation ecosystem.
There will be a significant increase in efforts to reduce social media-related harms
Trends: social media, social media harms and mental wellness
Concern about social media’s impact on mental health, public discourse and election integrity will continue in 2020. Instagram and Facebook will follow through on removing likes from their platforms; most likely, Twitter will do the same. Efforts to fight bullying and social media addiction will also continue, as parents, educators and legislators’ concerns about social media’s harms to youth in particular lead to concrete action.
Remote parts of the U.S. will start receiving Amazon packages by drone
Trends: shipping innovation, drones
As we’ve previously written, Amazon has already tested drone delivery service, which it’s calling Prime Air, for certain Prime customers in remote areas. In 2020, these efforts will come to maturity in the form of drone deliveries to remote areas of the U.S. While it’s still too early — and too complicated — to deploy drones in densely populated urban areas with highly regulated airspace, rural areas where slow mail delivery poses a challenge to Prime’s 2-day delivery timeline are ready for Prime Air.
Deepfakes-as-Service will emerge as a new industry
After much hand-wringing about deepfakes in 2019, deepfakes-as-a-service will emerge in 2020. This service will increase randomware’s effectiveness and lead to more sophisticated election interference and misinformation campaigns. This explainer video explains what this might mean:
And a deepfake created by Ars Technica writer Timothy B. Lee illustrates what the deepfakes-as-a-service future might yield (making this video cost Lee two weeks and $552). Admittedly, Lee’s Zuckerberg looks decidedly creepy… but as deepfake technology advances, it’s a sure bet that the results will look ever-more realistic and convincing.
Your next doctor’s appointment will be via your smartphone Trends: personalization, bespoke D2C companies/products, mobile-first experiences
The terrible days of waiting in a depressing waiting room are nearly over. In 2020, it will be commonplace to see a GP virtually or consult urgent care or the ER for minor at-home scrapes and burns by video chat. 2020 will be a breakthrough year for apps that already provide these services and well-funded VC-backed startups in this space. Your local store’s product selection will be dictated by your neighbors
Trends: hyperlocalization, supply chain optimization, fitting to consumer at store level
Tom Buiocchi, CEO of ServiceChannel, predicts ‘hyper-local’ will be a trend for all sorts of retail and services of all kinds. Big retailers are already shifting from the mega-super-store to local outposts that look and feel more like part of the community (such as Amazon’s four-star store in SoHo), so in 2020 location will matter more and more. This will even extend to healthcare: expect to see more and more core medical services offered at pharmacies or even purpose-built locations. By tailoring their products and services at the zip code level, retailers can provide shoppers with a convenient and efficient experience.
A look back in time: How did predictions about the 2010s fare? In the 2000s, everyone was guessing about what 2010–2020 would bring. Some of their predictions, such as technology tracking everything, have come true. Notably, the Telegraph presciently predicted the mobile phone’s future importance. However, other predictions, such as human brains and the internet becoming integrated and the end of global music stars, haven’t come about yet. ….and to end this week’s newsletter, this will be our final edition of 2019. We wish you the happiest of holidays and will sneak in the video from last week’s This Week in Business History fact one more time:
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